What it sounds like
- I wore lucky socks and we won, so the socks caused the win.
- "We changed the logo and sales dipped, so the logo caused it." Perhaps. Also perhaps seasonality, price, traffic, or the sales page having the charisma of wet cardboard.
Logical fallacy
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Assuming that because one thing happened after another, the first caused the second.
Classic tell: I wore lucky socks and we won, so the socks caused the win.
Back to the guideFurther explanation
What is happening underneath?
Assuming that because one thing happened after another, the first caused the second.
One event follows another, so the first gets accused of causing the second. Timing is evidence to investigate, not a conviction.
How to tell
- The argument relies on sequence without ruling out other causes.
Why people use it
- A timeline feels tidy, and tidy stories are easier than messy systems.
How to combat it
- Say: "What else changed, and do we see the same pattern when those factors are controlled?"
Manipulation watch
How this gets used on people.
- Politicians love taking credit for improvements that happened after they arrived, even when the causes were already in motion.