What it sounds like
- There is no way this will work.
- "They will probably reject the proposal." Perhaps. Also perhaps they will ask two questions and approve it.
Cognitive distortion
Negative Prediction Bias
Assuming the most likely outcome is bad.
Classic tell: There is no way this will work.
Back to the guideFurther explanation
What is happening underneath?
Assuming the most likely outcome is bad.
The forecast tilts dark by default. It is not quite fortune-telling; it is more like pessimism wearing a lab coat.
How to tell
- Negative outcomes are treated as more realistic simply because they feel safer to expect.
Why people use it
- Expecting disappointment can feel like emotional insurance.
How to respond
- Ask: "What probability would I assign if I were not trying to brace myself?"
Manipulation watch
How this gets used on people.
- Fear-based marketing encourages negative forecasts so the product can become protection against an imagined loss.