What it sounds like
- The prediction failed because invisible forces interfered.
- "The prediction did not happen because people doubted it." Convenient. Untestable. Wearing a cape.
Logical fallacy
Ad Hoc Rescue
Inventing an explanation to save a claim from being disproven.
Classic tell: The prediction failed because invisible forces interfered.
Back to the guideFurther explanation
What is happening underneath?
Inventing an explanation to save a claim from being disproven.
A claim fails, then a new explanation appears solely to save it. The rescue may be possible, but it needs independent evidence.
How to tell
- The explanation is invented after failure and cannot be checked separately.
Why people use it
- It avoids admitting the original claim was wrong.
How to combat it
- Say: "What would count as evidence against the claim?"
Manipulation watch
How this gets used on people.
- Grifters use ad hoc rescues when promises fail: you did not manifest hard enough, the market was jealous, the system fought us.