What it sounds like
- Finding random clusters in data and calling them proof.
- "Three successful clients all posted on Tuesdays, so Tuesday posting is the secret." Please step away from the data confetti.
Logical fallacy
Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Picking patterns after the fact and pretending they were meaningful all along.
Classic tell: Finding random clusters in data and calling them proof.
Back to the guideFurther explanation
What is happening underneath?
Picking patterns after the fact and pretending they were meaningful all along.
A pattern is found after the fact and treated as if it had been predicted. First comes the bullet holes; then someone paints the target.
How to tell
- The pattern was selected after viewing the data, with no fresh test or comparison.
Why people use it
- Humans are pattern machines, including when the pattern is just noise wearing a blazer.
How to combat it
- Say: "Was this hypothesis set before the data, and does it hold on new data?"
Manipulation watch
How this gets used on people.
- Trend reports and investment pitches use after-the-fact clusters to make randomness look like a strategy.